To predict the probability of occult lymph node metastasis (OLNM) in the central cervical by analyzing the dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) parameters derived from papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).Data were retrospectively collected from patients with pathologically confirmed PTC who underwent arterial and venous phases of enhanced DECT with concurrent central neck lymph node dissection (CLND). Three clinical features, three shape-related features, and twenty-six DECT-derived parameters were measured. The univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to select the relevant parameters and develop the nomogram.A total 140 cases with negative diagnosis of cervical central lymph node metastases by preoperative evaluation were included, among which 88 patients with metastasis (OLNM +) and 52 patients without metastasis (OLNM -) were finally confirmed by pathology. (1) Anteroposterior/transverse diameter ratio (A/T) derived from the PTC focus had significant difference between the OLNM + and OLNM - groups (p < 0.05). (2) In the arterial phase, iodine concentration (ICarterial), normalized iodine concentration (NICarterial), effective atomic number (Zeff-arterial), electron density (EDarterial), and slope of energy curve (karterial) from PTC focus showed significant difference (all p < 0.05) between the two groups. In the venous phase, only the CT value under the 40 keV (HU40keVvenous) had differences (p < 0.05). (3) The nomogram was produced to predict the probability of OLNM, and the AUC, sensitivity, and specificity in the training and test cohort were 0.830, 75.0%, 76.9%, and 0.829, 65.9%, 84.6%, respectively.DECT parameters combined with shape-related feature derived from PTC might be used as predictors of OLNM in the central neck.Preoperative imaging evaluation combining shape-related features and dual-energy CT parameters could serve as a reference to discern occult lymph node metastasis in central neck during the surgically planning of papillary thyroid carcinoma.• Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients may have occult lymph node metastasis (OLNM) in the central neck, which is extremely difficult to find by preoperative imaging examination. • Dual-energy CT quantitative evaluation has higher accuracy than conventional CT and can predicting OLNM in the central neck of PTC. • Dual-energy CT quantitative parameters and morphology of PTC can serve as a useful tool in predicting OLNM in the central neck, and as a guide for personalized treatment.© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to European Society of Radiology.