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Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus

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收录情况： ◇ SCIE

作者：
You Hanxiao[1,2] ; Zhao Jiuliang[1] ; Zhang Miaojia[2] ; Jin Ziyi[3] ; Feng Xuebing[3] ; Tan Wenfeng[2] ; Wu Lijun[4] ; Duan Xinwang[5] ; Luo Hui[6] ; Zhao Cheng[7] ; Zhan Feng[8] ; Wu Zhenbiao[9] ; Li Hongbin[10] ; Yang Min[11] ; Xu Jian[12] ; Wei Wei[13] ; Wang Yanhong[14] ; Shi Juhong[15] ; Qu Jingge[1] ; Wang Qian[1] ; Leng Xiaomei[1] ; Tian Xinping[1] ; Zhao Yan[1] ; Li Mengtao[1] ; Zeng Xiaofeng[1] ;
机构： [1]Department of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, National Clinical Research Center for Dermatologic and Immunologic Diseases (NCRC-DID), Ministry of Science & Technology, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH), Key Laboratory of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China. [2]Department of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. [3]Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. [4]Department of Rheumatology, People Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, China. [5]Department of Rheumatology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China. [6]Department of Rheumatology, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China. [7]Department of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China. [8]Department of Rheumatology, Hainan General Hospital, Haikou, China. [9]Department of Clinical Immunology and Rheumatology, Xijing Hospital Affiliated to the Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, China. [10]Department of Rheumatology, Affiliated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical College, Hohhot, China. [11]Department of Rheumatology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China. [12]Department of Rheumatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China. [13]Department of Rheumatology, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China. [14]Department of Epidemiology and Bio-statistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, China Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China. [15]Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
出处：
DOI： 10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003568
ISSN：

摘要：
Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We conducted this study to develop a risk score algorithm for VTE in patients with SLE that provides individualised risk estimates.We developed a clinical prediction model of VTE in 4502 patients with SLE based on the Chinese SLE Treatment and Research group cohort (CSTAR) from January 2009 to January 2020 and externally validated in 3780 patients with SLE in CSTAR from January 2020 to January 2022. Baseline data were obtained and VTE events were recorded during the follow-up. The prediction model was developed to predict VTE risk within 6 months in patients with SLE, using multivariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. SLE-VTE score and nomogram were established according to the model.A total of 4502 patients included in the development cohort, 135 had VTE events. The final prediction model (SLE-VTE score) included 11 variables: gender, age, body mass index, hyperlipidaemia, hypoalbuminaemia, C reactive protein, anti-β2GPI antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, renal involvement, nervous system involvement and hydroxychloroquine, with area under the curve of 0.947 and 0.808 in the development (n=4502) and external validation cohort (n=3780), respectively. According to the net benefit and predicted probability thresholds, we recommend annual screening of VTE in high risk (≥1.03%) patients with SLE.Various factors are related to the occurrence of VTE in patients with SLE. The proposed SLE-VTE risk score can accurately predict the risk of VTE and help identify patients with SLE with a high risk of VTE who may benefit from thromboprophylaxis.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

基金：
Chinese National Key Technology R&D Program, Ministry of Science and Technology (grant numbers 2021YFC2501300, 2017YFC0907600); CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (grant number 2021-I2M-1-005);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (grant number 3332018039); Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission (grant number Z201100005520023, Z201100005520027); the Special Financial Grant from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant number 2021TQ0134); Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (grant number BK20210964); National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (grant number 82302041); Doctoral Program of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Jiangsu Province (grant number JSSCBS20211479).
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外文
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出版当年[2024]版：
无
最新[2023]版：
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 风湿病学
JCR分区：
出版当年[2023]版：
Q1 RHEUMATOLOGY
最新[2023]版：
Q1 RHEUMATOLOGY

影响因子： 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2023版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2022版]

第一作者：
第一作者机构： [1]Department of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, National Clinical Research Center for Dermatologic and Immunologic Diseases (NCRC-DID), Ministry of Science & Technology, State Key Laboratory of Complex Severe and Rare Diseases, Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH), Key Laboratory of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, Ministry of Education, Beijing, China. [2]Department of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
You Hanxiao,Zhao Jiuliang,Zhang Miaojia,et al.Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus[J].RMD OPEN.2023,9(4):doi:10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003568.
APA：
You Hanxiao,Zhao Jiuliang,Zhang Miaojia,Jin Ziyi,Feng Xuebing...&Zeng Xiaofeng.(2023).Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus.RMD OPEN,9,(4)
MLA：
You Hanxiao,et al."Development and external validation of a prediction model for venous thromboembolism in systemic lupus erythematosus".RMD OPEN 9..4(2023)

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