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Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages

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收录情况： ◇ SCIE ◇ 自然指数

作者：
Hracs Lindsay[1] * ; Windsor Joseph W[1] * ; Gorospe Julia[1] ; Cummings Michael[2] ; Coward Stephanie[1] ; Buie Michael J[1] ; Quan Joshua[1] ; Goddard Quinn[1] ; Caplan Lea[1] ; Markovinovic Ante[1] ; Williamson Tyler[2] ; Abbey Yvonne[3] ; Abdullah Murdani[4] ; Abreu Maria T[5,6] ; Ahuja Vineet[6,7] ; Raja Ali Raja Affendi[8] ; Altuwaijri Mansour[9] ; Balderramo Domingo[10] ; Banerjee Rupa[6,11] ; Benchimol Eric I[12,13,14,15] ; Bernstein Charles N[6,16] ; Brunet-Mas Eduard[17,18,19] ; Burisch Johan[6,20,21,22] ; Chong Vui Heng[23] ; Dotan Iris[6,24] ; Dutta Usha[25] ; El Ouali Sara[26,27] ; Forbes Angela[28] ; Forss Anders[29] ; Gearry Richard[6,28] ; Dao Viet Hang[30] ; Hartono Juanda Leo[31,32] ; Hilmi Ida[33] ; Hodges Phoebe[34,35] ; Jones Gareth-Rhys[36] ; Juliao-Banos Fabian[37] ; Kaibullayeva Jamilya[38,39] ; Kelly Paul[34,35] ; Kobayashi Taku[40,41] ; Kotze Paulo Gustavo[6,42] ; Lakatos Peter L[6,43,44] ; Lees Charlie W[45,46] ; Limsrivilai Julajak[47] ; Lo Bobby[20,21] ; Loftus Edward V[6,48] ; Ludvigsson Jonas F[29,49] ; Mak Joyce W Y[50] ; Miao YingLei[51,52] ; Ng Ka Kei[53] ; Okabayashi Shinji[54] ; Olen Ola[55] ; Panaccione Remo[1,6] ; Paudel Mukesh Sharma[56] ; Quaresma Abel Botelho[57,58] ; Rubin David T[6,59] ; Simadibrata Marcellus[4] ; Sun Yang[51,52] ; Suzuki Hidekazu[60] ; Toro Martin[61] ; Turner Dan[6,62] ; Iade Beatriz[63] ; Wei Shu Chen[64] ; Yamamoto-Furusho Jesus K[65] ; Yang Suk-Kyun[66] ; Ng Siew C[67,68,69,70] ; Kaplan Gilaad G[71,72] ;
机构： [1]Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. [2]Centre for Health Informatics and Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. [3]Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust, Kent, UK. [4]Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, HCRC IMERI, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia. [5]F. Widjaja Inflammatory Bowel Disease Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA. [6]International Organization for the study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD), Stockholm, Sweden. [7]Department of Gastroenterology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India. [8]Sir Jeffrey Cheah Sunway Medical School, Faculty of Medical and Life Sciences, Sunway University, Selangor, Malaysia. [9]Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. [10]IBD Unit, Gastroenterology Department, Hospital Privado Universitario de Cordoba, Instituto Universitario de Ciencias Biomedicas de Cordoba, Cordoba, Argentina. [11]IBD Center, Asian Institute of Gastroenterology, Hyderabad, India. [12]SickKids Inflammatory Bowel Disease Centre, Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids), Toronto, Ontario, Canada. [13]Department of Paediatrics and Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. [14]Child Health Evaluative Sciences, SickKids Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. [15]ICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. [16]Department of Medicine, and the University of Manitoba IBD Clinical and Research Centre, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. [17]Gastroenterology Department, Parc Tauli Hospital Universitari, Institut d'Investigacio I Innovacio Parc Tauli (I3PT-CERCA), Sabadell, Spain. [18]CIBERehd, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain. [19]Departament de Medicina, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. [20]Gastrounit, Medical Division, Copenhagen University Hospital-Amager and Hvidovre, Hvidovre, Denmark. [21]Copenhagen Center for Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Children, Adolescents and Adults, Copenhagen University Hospital-Amager and Hvidovre, Hvidovre, Denmark. [22]Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. [23]Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha (RIPAS) Hospital, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam. [24]Division of Gastroenterology, Rabin Medical Center, Petah-Tikva, Israel, Affiliated to the Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel. [25]Department of Gastroenterology, Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India. [26]Digestive Disease Institute, Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE. [27]Digestive Disease and Surgery Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH, USA. [28]Department of Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand. [29]Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. [30]Internal Medicine Faculty, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam. [31]Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore. [32]Division Gastroenterology & Hepatology, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore. [33]Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. [34]Blizard Institute, Barts & The London School of Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK. [35]Tropical Gastroenterology & Nutrition Group, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia. [36]University of Edinburgh, Institute for Regeneration and Repair, Edinburgh, UK. [37]Department of Gastroenterology, Pablo Tobon Uribe Hospital, Medellin, Colombia. [38]JSC Research Institute of Cardiology and Internal Diseases of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan. [39]Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan. [40]Center for Advanced IBD Research and Treatment, Kitasato University Kitasato Institute Hospital, Tokyo, Japan. [41]Department of Gastroenterology, Kitasato University School of Medicine, Sagamihara, Japan. [42]Health Sciences Postgraduate Program, Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Parana, Curitiba, Brazil. [43]Division of Gastroenterology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. [44]Department of Internal Medicine and Oncology, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary. [45]Centre for Genomics and Experimental Medicine (CGEM), Institute of Genetics & Cancer, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. [46]Edinburgh IBD Unit, Western General Hospital, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK. [47]Division of Gastroenterology, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. [48]Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, Rochester, MN, USA. [49]Department of Pediatrics, orebro University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden. [50]Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. [51]Gastroenterology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University,Kunming,China. [52]Yunnan Province Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Kunming, China. [53]Conde S. Januario Hospital, Macao SAR, China. [54]Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, School of Public Health in the Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan. [55]Division of Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Medicine Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. [56]Department of Gastroenterology, National Academy of Medical Sciences, Kathmandu, Nepal. [57]UNOESC Curso de Medicina, Universidade do Oeste de Santa Catarina, Joacaba, Brazil. [58]Health Sciences Postgraduate Program, Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Parana, Curitiba, Brazil. [59]Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center, University of Chicago Medicine, Chicago, IL, USA. [60]Division of Gastroenteroloy and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tokai University School of Medicine, Isehara, Japan. [61]Head of the Inflammatory Bowel Diseases Unit, HIGEA, Mendoza, Argentina. [62]The Juliet Keidan Institute of Pediatric Gastroenterology & Nutrition, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Shaare Zedek Medical Center, Jerusalem, Israel. [63]Cooperativa de Servicios Medicos (COSEM), Montevideo, Uruguay. [64]Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan. [65]Inflammatory Bowel Disease Clinic, Department of Gastroenterology, National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition and National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Mexico City, Mexico. [66]Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea. [67]International Organization for the study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD), Stockholm, Sweden. [68]Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Institute of Digestive Disease, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China [69]Microbiota I-Center (MagIC), Hong Kong, China [70]New Cornerstone Science Laboratory, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China [71]Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada [72]International Organization for the study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD), Stockholm, Sweden.
出处：
DOI： 10.1038/s41586-025-08940-0
ISSN：

摘要：
During the twentieth century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early industrialized regions in North America, Europe and Oceania1. At the turn of the twenty-first century, IBD incidence increased in newly industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America, while the prevalence in early industrialized regions continued to grow steadily2-4. Changes in the incidence and prevalence denote the evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: stage 1 (emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (acceleration in incidence), marked by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (compounding prevalence), where the incidence decelerates, plateaus or declines while the prevalence steadily increases. A fourth stage (prevalence equilibrium) has been proposed in which the prevalence slope plateaus due to demographic shifts in an ageing IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have remained theoretical, lacking specific numerical indicators to define transition points. Here, using real-world data from 522 population-based studies encompassing 82 global regions and spanning more than a century (1920-2024), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1-3 and model stage 4 progression. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages enables healthcare systems to better anticipate the future worldwide burden of IBD.© 2025. The Author(s).

基金：
The work was funded by The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust (grant no. G-2108-04777); the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Project Scheme Operating Grant (reference no. PJT- 162393); and the International Organization for the study Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD). S.C.N. has received research funding from the Research Grants Council–Research Impact Fund (RGC-RIF, grant no. R4030-22), New Cornerstone Science Foundation (grant no. NCI202346), InnoHK, The Government of Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China, and the Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust (grant no. 2017PG-IBD003).
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第一作者：
第一作者机构： [1]Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
通讯机构： [67]International Organization for the study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD), Stockholm, Sweden. [68]Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Institute of Digestive Disease, State Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China [69]Microbiota I-Center (MagIC), Hong Kong, China [70]New Cornerstone Science Laboratory, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China [71]Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada [72]International Organization for the study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IOIBD), Stockholm, Sweden.
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Hracs Lindsay,Windsor Joseph W,Gorospe Julia,et al.Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages[J].Nature.2025,642(8067):doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08940-0.
APA：
Hracs Lindsay,Windsor Joseph W,Gorospe Julia,Cummings Michael,Coward Stephanie...&Kaplan Gilaad G.(2025).Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages.Nature,642,(8067)
MLA：
Hracs Lindsay,et al."Global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease across epidemiologic stages".Nature 642..8067(2025)

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