To establish deep learning models for malignancy risk estimation of sub-centimeter pulmonary nodules incidentally detected by chest CT and managed in clinical settings.Four deep learning models were trained using CT images of sub-centimeter pulmonary nodules from West China Hospital, internally tested, and externally validated on three cohorts. The four models respectively learned 3D deep features from the baseline whole lung region, baseline image patch where the nodule located, baseline nodule box, and baseline plus follow-up nodule boxes. All regions of interest were automatically segmented except that the nodule boxes were additionally manually checked. The performance of models was compared with each other and that of three respiratory clinicians.There were 1822 nodules (981 malignant) in the training set, 806 (416 malignant) in the testing set, and 357 (253 malignant) totally in the external sets. The area under the curve (AUC) in the testing set was 0.754, 0.855, 0.928, and 0.942, respectively, for models derived from baseline whole lung, image patch, nodule box, and the baseline plus follow-up nodule boxes. When baseline models externally validated (follow-up images not available), the nodule-box model outperformed the other two with AUC being 0.808, 0.848, and 0.939 respectively in the three external datasets. The resident, junior, and senior clinicians achieved an accuracy of 67.0%, 82.5%, and 90.0%, respectively, in the testing set. The follow-up model performed comparably to the senior clinician.The deep learning algorithms solely mining nodule information can efficiently predict malignancy of incidental sub-centimeter pulmonary nodules.The established models may be valuable for supporting clinicians in routine clinical practice, potentially reducing the number of unnecessary examinations and also delays in diagnosis.• According to different regions of interest, four deep learning models were developed and compared to evaluate the malignancy of sub-centimeter pulmonary nodules by CT images. • The models derived from baseline nodule box or baseline plus follow-up nodule boxes demonstrated sufficient diagnostic accuracy (86.4% and 90.4% in the testing set), outperforming the respiratory resident (67.0%) and junior clinician (82.5%). • The proposed deep learning methods may aid clinicians in optimizing follow-up recommendations for sub-centimeter pulmonary nodules and may lead to fewer unnecessary diagnostic interventions.© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to European Society of Radiology.