详情页

当前位置：首页 > 详情页

Global and regional disease burden of HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030

39| 认领 | 导出 | 链接全文 |

文献详情

资源类型：

WOS体系：

Pubmed体系：

收录情况： ◇ SCIE

作者：

机构： [1]Yunnan Provincial Hospital of Infectious Disease/Yunnan AIDS Care Center, Kunming, China. [2]Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Occurrence and Intervention of Kidney Diseases, Medical College, Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi, China. [3]Department of Dermatology and Venereology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China.

出处：

DOI：

关键词： Global burden of disease HIV/AIDS Incidence Mortality Disability-adjusted life-years Risk factors

摘要：

Few studies have focused on the descriptive epidemiology and trends of HIV/AIDS since the publication of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2021. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the trends and patterns of the HIV/AIDS burden at the global, regional, and national levels by sex, age and social development index (SDI). We also explored risk factors and predicted the GBD of HIV/AIDS until 2030.Data on the etiology of HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the 2021 GBD database. Estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess temporal trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of HIV/AIDS patients. Measures categorized by sex, region, age and SDI quintiles. In addition, an age‒period‒cohort model was established to forecast future trends of the HIV/AIDS burden to 2030.Globally, the incidence of HIV/AIDS reached 1.65 million (95% uncertainty interval 1.48 to 1.82) in 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of HIV/AIDS showed a downward trend, with an EAPC of 0.14% (0.12-0.16%). The ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR of HIV/AIDS were highest in the low-SDI region and lowest in the high-SDI region. Regionally, southern sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASIR in 2021, whereas Oceania had the largest increase in the ASIR from 1990 to 2021. Burundi (EAPC 14.04%, 95% CI -13.63 to -14.44%), followed by Burkina Faso, exhibited the most significant decrease in the ASIR. Globally, the highest incidence rate was observed in the 25-29 years old group. Unsafe sex is the primary factor leading to the burden of HIV/AIDS. By 2030, the global ASIR, ASDR and ASMR of HIV/AIDS are expected to gradually decrease.HIV/AIDS disease burden varies by region, sex, and age. The global burden of HIV/AIDS is substantial in low-income regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study offers valuable epidemiological evidence for future research on the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS.© 2025. The Author(s).

基金：

语种：

高被引：

热点：

被引次数：

WOS：

PubmedID：

中科院(CAS)分区：

出版当年[2026]版：

无

最新[2025]版：

大类 | 2 区医学

小类 | 2 区公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

JCR分区：

出版当年[2025]版：

无

最新[2024]版：

Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

影响因子： 3.6 最新[2024版] 4.2 最新五年平均 0 出版当年[2025版] 0 出版当年五年平均 3.6 出版前一年[2024版]

第一作者：

第一作者机构： [1]Yunnan Provincial Hospital of Infectious Disease/Yunnan AIDS Care Center, Kunming, China. [2]Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Occurrence and Intervention of Kidney Diseases, Medical College, Hubei Polytechnic University, Huangshi, China.

共同第一作者：

通讯作者：

推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：

APA：

MLA：

Global and regional disease burden of HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030 $(function () { $("[data-toggle='tooltip']").tooltip(); });

文献详情

相关文献

Global and regional disease burden of HIV/AIDS from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2030